RotoGuru - Baseball Feedback Archives

Baseball
Overview
Favorite links
Base Advances

1998 SW Stats
Yesterday's SWP
Best Games
Assimilator

General
Home page
Hall of Fame
Register
Gur-who?

This site's features are best exploited using Netscape Communicator 4.0 or higher. You can download a Netscape browser free by clicking on the Netscape Now icon.

Feedback

This page is devoted to feedback I've received from you. If you have a question to ask or a comment to make, send me an email and if I think it's of general interest, I'll post it here.

Click here to move ahead to current feedback letters.

Guru:
I was a little disappointed in Pierce's gain, but he's the one player I did take coming off some slack time. But, the way I look at it we are 48 points ahead of the people that didn't pick him, and I figure there might be some buyers eventually.

I stayed away from JR Reid-CHA and W Williams-POR because I wasn't sure how they would fare price-wise after 4 and 3 days off, and picked up Maurice Taylor-LAC Monday morning because of schedule and playing time.

I thought Darrell Armstrong would be the big price gainer (for guard) after his 44 and 48 point performance last week and lofty 29.3 average at trade time. With his schedule, I can't figure that.

This could be tougher to figure than the bye week in football. You don't know what week everyone is looking at. With the start of each week, I have the number of games for teams from each day through the end of that week plus 2 weeks. So, I'm always looking, but after an early pickup got injured last week, I might think a little more about it. - Steve H. (2/25)

response from Guru:
There aren't many teams with a "near-bye" week this time (although Seattle only plays twice from Thursday-Wednesday), so scheduling may be less of a confusing issue this week. Then again, maybe that will make it more confusing. - Guru

Guru:
I just read your post on second round price changes. I have participated in Smallworld games pretty much since inception, so I have a good idea of what should/will happen. I have finished in the top 50 a couple of times, and I think to do this you have to somewhat accurately predict the changes for a given game (i.e. who your "bouncers" are- Brevin Knight from last year...) All your comments were good justifications for what happened and why, but I think you are missing one important aspect.

I capitalized on most all major price increasers yesterday, including Bryant Stith (hehe), and my roster value is now 67M. I used a fairly simple formula for figuring out: Go by Smallworld's Top 50 lists. Now, this strategy will most likely only work the first couple of weeks, while large numbers of people are still actively trading. Once someone sees that they are out of it, they will stop playing. Diehards, who are generally more knowledgeable, will still play, but probably not focus on those lists as much. But, then again, the shortened season may keep everyone involved until the end. It's like I have heard you say some times - a dumb move by the herd may turn out to be a good move after all. Anyway, best of luck on the season, and keep up the great work on the site. Definitely a time saving tool for me. - Brett E. (2/25)

response from Guru:
Good point, Brett, and one I've made several times as well - but neglected to mention this time.

Actually, I did notice Stith's attractive position on the top 50 list. But given his recently missed game, I just couldn't bring myself to buy him, especially when I thought there were better values elsewhere. If I'd have expected him to be one of the big gainers, I might have reconsidered. However, I think the guys I picked up instead will work out just fine - I'll just have to wait until next week to collect the full reward.

I do see, however, that Stith had a better than average game last night. Dohhh!!! - Guru

Guru:
Speaking about early-week trading....

It makes sense to trade early in the week if you have the trades in hand. You can't do it if you've only got 5 trades for the week. I drafted well and anticipated the aborted repricing, thereby conserving trades. I trade early in the week and then adjust at the end if need be. My rationale is that I can already assume who will go up in price. It's easier to look and see who plays more games than it is to predict who will catch fire. I can already see who plays more games.

A player that it is underpriced now and plays more games than everyone else before the next top 50 list update (not the next repricing, but the next top 50 list update, usually Sunday or Monday) will almost certainly go up in value. It has worked pretty well so far, but I think outdated lists at Smallworld hurt me this week. By making my trades at the beginning of the week, and tinkering at the end, I hopefully get the points associated with the price run up and not just the price run up. I figure that if I do it any other way, I'm just playing catch up.

I also have to look ahead. Repricing just took place this afternoon. I have a list of players that play the most games between tomorrow and Sunday, March 7th (the last day top 50 lists should be updated before 3/10 repricing). The players that play the most games over this span have the greatest chance of moving up in the top 50 lists. No surprise there.

Another reason I look 2 weeks out is that almost all teams play 3 games between now and Sunday night. It's such a short time period. Over a longer amount of time there's a greater chance that some teams will play many more games than others. Also, more games played means greater likelihood that players will perform up to their average.

So, there are 11 teams that all play 7 games between tomorrow and 3/7. Additionally, I will check to see which of these teams play the most games between 3/8 and 3/10. That's the deciding factor. I still want to keep those points rollin' in while I am waiting for that top 50 list status to translate into phat dukets. There's 3 days of waiting between Sunday and Wednesday. That means 3 days of other managers trading based on Sunday's top 50 lists. It also means 3 days of games while we wait for repricing. I want my players to remain active. I forgot that this week and dropped from #181 to #494. Not good.

Of the 11 teams referred to above, 4 of them play an additional 2 games between Monday and Wednesday. Therefore, during this 2 week cycle, I am most likely to pick up undervalued players from the Lakers, Phoenix, Vancouver, and Washington.

You might ask, what about next week's repricing? I didn't trade my whole team this week. I acquired half of them last week. By next week, they will already be completing their hot stretches, and hopefully with big returns for my trouble. This is just one example of why someone would trade at the beginning rather than at the end of the week. - Gareth (2/24)

response from Guru:
The key to your approach, as you mention, is that you have some spare trades in reserve in case of emergency. My comments below were based on the assumption that the writer typically used up his trades shortly after they were doled out. Now that I reread his letter, I see that may have been an incorrect assumption.

Even so, I've always tended to wait. It worked pretty well in baseball last year (ranked #75 in SW, and #19 in CNN), and I think my biggest failing in baseball (I know, you'd all like to fail so miserably) was more related to wimpy handling of pitchers early in the year. But to each his own. - Guru

Guru:
I'm doing better than I would have expected in SmallWorld, with a few (in hindsight) trade blunders I made. (But that just means I'm not alone in that aspect.) But the starting research helped, because I wasn't scrambling with all the players. I had players that in general were price gainers, and was even able to pick and choose a few higher gainers. But I had to throw in a few blunders. Biggest was probably dropping S Elliot to soon for Stojakovic, which turned into a double waste when he turned up hurt. I have a note on my roster, "Read Guru's trade article often". The standard deviation article on performance was interesting, also.

I think there are a few players that are going to be big price gainers today, but in my opinion, are overproducing at the moment, based on their career performance for SWP/minute (even allowing for an increase). It would be great if I had them already, but I'm afraid I might be getting in on the tail end of a streak, and don't want to waste a trade and have to dump them soon, so I passed. We'll see if that's a blunder. - Steve H. (2/24)

response from Guru:
Sounds like you're well on your way to greater wisdom. As I've said many times, the best way to learn how to do something well is to screw it up a few times.

That said, there may be a valid reasons why SWP/minute should normally increase as minutes increase:

First, why is a player getting more minutes? Maybe because he's playing better!
Second, some players are getting more minutes because of roster changes. When Michael Jordan was playing, Kukoc didn't have to be "the man". But this year he is going to be more involved in the offense. (Not the best example, because Kukoc's increase in production this year turns out to be roughly proportionate to his increase in minutes. But you get my drift.)
Third, when players are not used much, they are less likely to fit into the flow of the team. Sometimes, they're not much more than space-fillers while the big dogs are resting.
Sometimes players move to a different team which better suits their games.
And, of course, sometimes players just improve. And vice versa.

It's far from an exact science. Thank goodness - what fun would that be? - Guru

Guru:
I know it's spilled milk now, but as I was working on my weekly trades last night, I realized that Smallworld's cancellation of the first price change probably hurt Gurupies relatively harder than most people. If the first repricing had occurred as planned, all teams would have had to live with at least five draftees for one price change. Instead, everyone got the chance to completely redo their roster before prices changed.

So this essentially negated much of the value of an astute draft. I'll bet Gurupies, on average, had at least five players who would have been comfortable "keepers" for the first repricing. And I'll bet many less informed teams would have had to suffer with some laggards.

I guess no good deed goes unpunished. (It's not quite the right cliche, but I don't have time to think of a better one. Some of us do have to work for a living, you know! Of course, that's what makes your site so indispensable.) - Scott S. (2/24)

response from Guru:
You're right, Scott. Of course, the most astute Gurupies already anticipated that SW would (once again) cancel the first repricing, and didn't waste any first week trades. (Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.) And as long as you had a respectable draft, those trades will come in handy some rainy day. - Guru

Guru:
It may SEEM like it's too early for baseball, but it isn't ! RotoGuru leagues have started forming in Sandbox. I have started a private league RotoGuru II (password RotoGuru) in the Sandlot league with a draft of March 12. There are undoubtedly many more RotoGuru leagues to start, but the draft is sooner than you might think!!

Thanks for the great insights, Mr. Guru !! - RamBeast (2/24)

response from Guru:
Mr. Guru? Argh.

I know baseball games are already appearing, but I've got too much going on to deal with them just yet. But thanks for keeping the RotoGuru name propagating through the grapevine. - (Mr.) Guru

Guru:
You mentioned that some of the lower priced values might take a few weeks to mature in value. Actually, I'm kind of hoping that takes place. My reasons: If they really jump a whole lot real quickly, I'll have to include them in my current upgrade plan because they would not be cost effective anymore and teams would start dumping them off. I'm hoping to get a few good steady weeks of production, with steady money gain and then rotate them out, and in the mean time concentrate on upgrading the rest of my roster, for gains in points and dollars. Now if one of those players were to jump $2-3M, I'll take it and make pleasant adjustments to my tenative plan (which changes daily anyway, with injuries and performance), but I'm not expecting it. - Steve H. (2/24)

response from Guru:
I agree with your thinking. In fact, since each week you can only turn over half your roster at most, it's helpful to have obvious candidates to hold for multiple weeks. It also provides a competitive advantage to jump in early, since many managers are missing the first leg of the price uptick (see the next letter for one reason why). If everyone saw all the bargains immediately, we'd all have the same rosters - and the same values. That's no fun. That's also why growth in RotoGuru popularity is a mixed blessing (for you, but not for me!) It may help to bring about more rational trading patterns, but at the expense of leveling the playing field. Competitive advantages are wonderful things when you can exploit them. - Guru

Guru:
Is there any chance you could change your NBA schedule to break on Thursdays instead of Wednesdays? You can't use Smallworld trades that are given out on Wed until Thursday night's game. So, the week is really broken up by Thursdays. It would make it easier for me to visualize the weeks and plan my trades if you did. - BJ (2/24)

response from Guru:
It may fit your trading pattern, but I'm sure most Gurupies do their trading just prior to the repricing, rather than just after it. Which is why the way I did it really does make the most sense.

Frankly, you should consider waiting until the end of the week as well, as there are several very compelling reasons for this.

If you use up your trades early, you are stuck if an injury occurs during the week.
By trading early, you are one information cycle behind most of your competition. You are stuck buying hot players just after their first price jump, not just before it.

You can still do one or two midweek trades if the schedule warrants. But most of your trades should probably wait until Tuesday night.

As an example, people who waited until just before the first price change were able to pick up Othella Harrington very cheaply. He didn't emerge as a viable candidate until Barkley was injured, and had posted a couple of strong games. If you had already blown your trades, you conceded $1.2 million. You also might have been stuck with losses on Mashburn, Nash, and Ostertag - all of which were easily ducked if you had most of your trades available at the last minute.

Besides, I use the schedules to help manage my NBA.com and Sandbox teams too. One game uses a Monday-Sunday week, and the other uses a Tuesday-Monday week. So I know it's not that difficult to look across the weekly dividers. Certainly not for a Gurupie, at least.

Thanks for the suggestion, but no thanks. - Guru

Guru:
Can you add any of these to the stats page?

either SWP or SWP/G for the past week
minutes played (gives an idea of the minutes played by some of the less priced players)
number of games in the next week (I know that there is a full calendar but it's nice to have all of the info together)

- Derrick B. (2/24)

response from Guru:
In order:

I will be adding a column of recent SWP/G averages. Last basketball season I used the last 10 games, and am inclined to do that again - though I'll bow to the masses if there is more interest in a shorter period.
Average minutes played is currently listed (in the blue table) on each individual player page. I think I'll leave it at that for now. If you really want to drill down further, use the NBA.com link on each player page to pull up a game-by-game stats breakdown, which includes minutes.
I thought about adding the number of games in the next week, but that raises a definitional issue. What week? The next seven days? Or the next pricing period? I think the Sched-O-Matic solves the problem by providing each Gurupie with personal flexibility.

I know it is helpful to have as much information in one place as possible, but I have to balance that against the readability of the table. I'm reluctant to add more columns to the summary stats tables, because they already fill the width of my screen, and I know a lot of Gurupies have fewer pixels to work with than I do. Once you have to start scrolling back and forth to see all the data, the utility is significantly diminished. So, you'll just have to continue to navigate from page to page.

When I need to look at several pages simultaneously, I typically open multiple windows, so I can easily jump back and forth. (Like the button on a TV remote that allows you to jump back and forth between two channels.) In Netscape or MSIE, you can open a link in a separate window by clicking on it with the right mouse button, rather than the left. This brings up a menu that allows you to open the link in a new window. (I know a lot of you already knew this, but I'll bet there are many who didn't realize it.)

But thanks for the suggestions. Some of RotoGuru's most useful features have been suggested by Gurupies like you. - Guru

Guru:
Would it be possible to see in the Sched-O-Matic the teams that don't play at all in a certain time frame. Example, in Echelon I use the schedule 3 days at a time. It hard to figure out what teams aren't on the list. Once again, I bow to the Guru. - Rich M. (2/23)

response from Guru:
Good suggestion. It's done. If there are unscheduled teams during the period, the team names will now be listed at the bottom of the table.

I also used the opportunity to add a little RotoGuru promotion. While it will seem superfluous to most Gurupies, RotoNews now has a link to the Sched-O-Matic from their game site, so there are now some users who are otherwise unfamiliar with RotoGuru. I figured a little "in your face" self promotion might produce a few more converts to Gurupism (or is it Gurupie-ism?) - Guru

Guru:
I love SWS games. Why, at the start of each season, with every sport, SWS always has server problems? It is free, so even though I complain, I will continue to play, but SW Hoops is a week behind with their top 50! The CNN/SI site is much faster but has fewer features, no last five games, or next five games. I'm sure you have less resources than they do, but you are kicking their ass! I am not in a RotoGuru division, just a random one, I hope I can change that. I have a request, have you considered starting your own leagues, maybe you could let us all in on how player prices will be determined, before the game begins and stay with it for a whole season, that would be fresh. - Tim G. (2/23)

response from Guru:
I've thought about offering my own games, but for now, I'm not capable of handling all of the administrative burdens that running a game involves. I'd need to add some staff (current RotoGuru staffing = 1), and invest in some additional hardware and networking capabilities. It's far from clear that the returns would make sense vs. the investment. Someday maybe, but not right now.

I think I'm best served by exploiting my uniqueness, and providing a service that is uncommon on the internet. There are plenty of fantasy games, but not many places to turn to for tailored statistical analysis and technical advice. That's my uniqueness. And by "latching" on to other games, I can leverage my skills across a wider audience.

BTW, I really don't know much more than anyone about how the SW price formula works. As far as I know, it's a pure linear relationship based on net buys during the previous trading period. The key to understanding -and anticipating - price moves is to understand human psychology - not an easy task. - Guru

Guru:
Do you know if there is a way to find out date acquired or tradeable date for players on your Full Court roster? It would be a very handy thing to have as you attempt to plan ahead for trades on a 3 day basis. Also do you know if 72 hours is actually broken into minutes or rounded to the hour for trading purposes. Yesterday I attempted to trade at 11 AM est and it said I could not trade for 0 hours. but at 11:40 am I was able to trade. Thanks for all you do for "us fantasy nuts" - Gene B. (2/22)

response from Guru:
You've hit on what I consider to be the most irritating feature of Echelon games. Trade lockouts are enforced down to the minute, but only reported in hours. And, short of trying to sell someone prematurely, there's no convenient way to keep track of when trade lockouts end.

I'd like to see two changes, both which would seem to be easily implemented.

report the lockout period for each player on the roster listing, and
truncate the lockout time to end just after the freeze period for the last locked-out game. If a player can be traded at midnight, why can't he be released in the afternoon? The game eligibility implications are no different.

I made these very suggestions to Echelon's "Pooh-Bah" about a week ago. But don't hold your breaths. I made the exact same suggestions for their baseball game last summer, and so far, they haven't been reflected in any Echelon games.

So, you may want to do what I do. Keep a separate list of player trade times, and monitor it yourself. Inconvenient, but effective. - Guru

Guru:
I know there are a lot of factors, starting price, how many initial drafts, latest performance, etc, but on my rosters spreadsheet, I have a player's initial price, current price, and a column that divides the player's current average by 3 (a value where his SWP/G/$M would be 3). This gives me a quick estimate on his potential value before he stops looking like a bargain. Like I said, a lot of other things will factor into whether other managers pick him up, but this is just a quick reference on what you might to expect to gain over a period of time if he maintains performance. - Steve H. (2/22)

response from Guru:
I still prefer just eyeballing my posted summary stats tables, sorting by SWP, and scanning down the column for prices that look inordinately cheap vs. their peers. That's the only information non-Gurupies have to work with, and - for better or worse - those folks still drive most of the price action. - Guru

Guru:
I noticed that Kevin Garnett, Stephon Marbury and Joe Smith were all over 50 SWP last night, and KG had 70+. This made me wonder if you could possibly post some sort of single game team total record, for example just take the fantasy points scored by the starters of a team on a given night. Just a suggestion for you to ponder. - Jeremy C. (2/22)

response from Guru:
I've still got to get the best single games for individuals posted. Doubt if I'll get to a team listing.

Anyone know whether any other team has posted 3 guys over 50 SWP in one game? Sounds pretty unusual to me.- Guru

Guru:
This has nothing to do with Fantasy Baseball, but...Am I the only person on this planet who doesn't see the Clemens trade as a positive for the Yankees? Why would the Yankees break up a team that won 125 games last year? I don't get it. This was a team that posted the best season in modern A.L. history. I think everyone agrees that position for position they were far from the most talented team of all time, but when you put them all together they were the best. They were the epitome of hard work and togetherness; the definition of what a team is.

Now, I ask you. When teamwork and team spirit are the cornerstones of your team, why the heck do you trade your best pitcher and two other players on your championship team for a pitcher who has won only 7 games more than your own ace over the past two years? I am dumbfounded and I am even more baffled at how many people think this is a good move for the Yanks. Toronto got the better of this deal, not the Yanks.

Clemens is a great pitcher who is the only man to win 5 Cy Youngs as well as strike out 20 batters in a game twice. He has an outside chance at 300 wins and no one can question the fact that Clemens will be in the Hall when it is all said and done. That being said, Clemens is a selfish player who has never been liked by his teammates. Clemens is a choke artist and he's usually hurt in September and October. Sure, he struck out 20 Tigers, but when was the last time he mowed down the lineup in a big game? When was the last time he even won a big game?

Clemens was involved in post season play in 86' 88' 90' and 95' . He's pitched in 8 post season games and his overall record is 1-2. His ERA is almost 4. He was even thrown out of an ALCS game for arguing with an umpire. That sure helped his team a lot.

David Wells, on the other hand, was the ace of a team that won 125 games. He threw a perfect game. He was the darling of NY. He has 2 World Series rings. In post season play Wells has started 11 games and his record is 9-1. That's right, 9-1 and his ERA is slightly over two-and-a-half. He's a clutch pitcher.

If you're a team like the Sox, Indians, Astros or Rangers, you go after a guy like Clemens. If you are the Yankees, you don't ruin a good thing. You try to add to what you have, but not at the risk of disrupting what you've already got. People can say whatever they want, but this is a stupid move on Steinbrenner's part.

It's another case of an itchy trigger finger and trying to pull off a trade where one was not necessary. I give George credit for going out and trying to win at all costs. However, you'd be crazy to think that all his moves work out for the best. I'd bet you that most of his moves actually worked against the Yanks and cost them in the long run. I'd argue that one good reason the Yanks are winning now is that George was out of baseball long enough for them to develop a farm system without him trading everyone away. Don't get me wrong, I'd take Steinbrenner over Harrington and Duquette any day of the week. I'm just saying that not all his moves work out and this will probably be one of them. Did you see his interview? This move was fueled by emotion. All he could say was that he was still mad about losing out on the Clemens sweeps 2 years ago. That's not reason enough for me to break up one of the best teams of all time.

Now, after all that, don't tell me "I told you so" when the Yanks win another World Series this year. They still have too much for any other team to handle. I am simply arguing that the Yankees are a better team without making that move; contrary to popular opinion. - Gareth (2/1)

response from Guru:
Actually, I think the best rationale for the trade from the Yankees' standpoint is that they kept Cleveland from getting Clemens. Swapping Clemens for Wells doesn't make the Yanks appreciably better, but if the Tribe could have landed Roger, it would have been huge. Just think if the Tribe could throw Clemens against the Yankees twice in a playoff series (Gareth's comment about Rocket-choking notwithstanding.) Now, if Cleveland could just trade for Wells, think of a playoff matchup with Wells facing the Yankees - wouldn't that be fun! But maybe I shouldn't concede a Tribe-Yankees rematch just yet.... Nahhh!

I think the most disturbing aspect of the trade is that it obviously demonstrates the lack of balance in the resources of the major league franchises. True, money doesn't always buy a championship - just look at last year's Orioles - but name the last inexpensive team to win a World Series. Fortunately, my favorite team (Cleveland) is a "have", and not a "have-not", but if I were a fan of the Brewers, or the Expos, or the Royals, the long term outlook would be pretty discouraging. - Guru

Guru:
1999 NBA Season Theorem:
Undervalued player + Advantageous schedule = Injury
- Mike V. (2/14)

response from Guru:
I think you've just cited a special case of Murhpy's law. - Guru

Guru:
One additional point when discussing trades for price appreciation vs. trades for additional games -- if a player's upcoming schedule is loaded with games, other owners might be more likely to pick him up, thus giving a potential double-benefit (price increase AND additional games). - Joe R. (2/11)

response from Guru:
Good point. - Guru

Guru:
I think I finally have gone over the edge. It was bad enough to join (and start to like) fantasy hockey when I didn't even like hockey. But I just signed up for ESPN's NASCAR Fantasy game, which, I must admit, is more of an intellectual exercise than anything else. Doesn't appear to be too many people signed up for the game so far, but I started a Rotogurupies group anyway.

The first step is to admit I have a problem. . . . - Fred C. (2/11)

response from Guru:
Okalee dokalee! - Guru

Guru:
First, thanks for putting up this site and organizing the information.

I wanted to comment on the Small World strategy of trading for games played. Of course the goal of the game is to score the most points, and having players play in more games certainly is one way to work towards that goal. In a world with unlimited trades, each team should strive to play 10 players each night.

However, we have a limited number of trades. Some will be used for roster-value-appreciation, and some will likely be used to increase the number of games played. I am suggesting that the best strategy is not to trade for games played until later in the season.

At today's prices, the average player on a team has a salary of $5,000,000. On most teams, some have more, and some have less. Let's assume that a team's roster will appreciate $5,000,000 per week, and that after 4 weeks, the average player salary will be $7,000,000. Now is it better to get an extra game out of your $5,000,000 player, or out of your $7,000,000 player? In other words, it makes sense to swap Shaquille and David Robinson in and out, gaining some 40 points for the extra game, but it is likely not worth it to swap Kurt Thomas for Loy Vaught to gain the 15 points. - Kevin L. (2/10)

response from Guru:
You raise some good points. In fact, I wouldn't trade just to pick up an extra game until I was sure I had trades to burn. That means I wouldn't even cycle Shaq and David Robinson. (Well, maybe Shaq and Webber.... Naaahhh.) I do, however, take scheduling into account as a factor in making trades. I time my trades to get maximum game exposures - which means not always waiting until Wednesday. And I might avoid a trade if the schedule doesn't make sense.

Last season, I only made a couple of trades for the sole purpose of picking up games. Once, I sold Shaq to pick up Mutombo, during a period when Atlanta played 15 games to only nine for the Lakers. An extra six games seemed like a reasonable tradeoff, even after considering that Shaq averaged more than Dikembe. But last year there were fewer trades to work with, too. (Only 50.) So there may be more opportunities to pick up extra games this season. But be miserly with your trades for now. You never know when you may need to duck an injury - and injuries look like they may be a real problem in this short season.

I wrote a "Hoop Pointers" essay on this topic last season (see Trading on Schedule.) I just reread it, and the points are still valid. - Guru

Guru:
I know you probably aren't getting inundated with complaints about Smallworld not repricing this week, but just in case, here's a standard reply you can use:

"If anyone has played Smallworld's games before, they should have expected this sort of thing. It doesn't make it right, but nobody who played baseball or football should have expected repricing this week.

"Not being able to trade is frustrating, but we're all in the same boat. I guess the most frustrating part is that I took precautions this season. I drafted my team with the perception that the first repricing didn't even exist. I drafted under-valued players who played a heavy schedule before repricing on the 17th. What happened? Mashburn and Peeler went down with injuries. What's my point? Everybody is pissed and everybody is losing points. All the whiners should be spending this down time planning their next moves rather than complaining to somebody who is neither the cause of this problem or the solution to it." - Gareth (2/10)

response from Guru:
Thanks, Gareth, but I can take it. I think a lot of people just like a sympathetic person to vent to. - Guru

Guru:
I managed to make my SmallWorld Hoops trades at about 2am, EST, late last night. I had to wait 3-5 minutes for single pages to load like the buy/sell confirmation pages, etc. All told, it took me at least 45 minutes just to make my trades when it normally takes like 5 or 10 at the most. But you know how it is, Guru, I had to get me John Starks and Kobe Bryant for those price increases. Keep up the great work on an unbelievable website. - Mikus (2/10)

response from Guru:
I guess you could've gone to bed. Here's hoping Starks and Bryant hold up for another week. At least they each play four times this week. - Guru

Guru:
I'm wondering if there are many other people out there who got screwed over by Smallworld as I did.

I am a firm believer that money is by far the most important thing at the beginning of the season. I also value each and every trade. Last night I was able to make my trades, and I bought alot of players that I don't think will get many points, but I do think they will go up in value. Now without the price change I am out 5 trades and stuck with guys I don't really want who probably won't go up in next week. - Sammy L. (2/10)

response from Guru:
I very purposefully avoided picking up Celtics like Riley or Pierce. Even though I figured they'd probably go up, I couldn't afford to continue to hold them through the 6-day layoff. And if the price change were postponed, I'd have to blow a trade to drop them, leaving me short for my next week's trading. So, the only guys I traded for were guys who I could afford to own for the week. Looks like I dodged a bullet. But from the mail I'm getting, a number of Gurupies were equally prepared.

The value of experience. - Guru

Guru:
In light of the Gurupies' trading problems, I'll give away a ecret. I got my trading done at 3:30am EST (Wed morning), but then again not everyone's on college sleep schedules. The server is really fast at that time, too. I give ESPN plenty time to update their box scores and then make my trades. My theory is that once west coast people go to sleep then there's little to no traffic at all. The game might be worldwide, but I'm willing to bet the majority of managers reside in the United States. In otherwords, 3:00am is the ideal time to trade on the east coast. - Jason L. (2/10)

response from Guru:
Yawn. - Guru

Guru:
I know you are extremely busy, but again I wanted to give you the credit you deserve. Without your help, there is no way I would be ranked #1. Also thanks for the pricing advice, I was thinking along similar lines, but I really like Ceballos because of the scheduling, possibly Steve Nash for the same reason. For what its worth, I find your sched-o-matic, to be extremely extremely valuable. You are the best, and thanks again, to have the #1 team in each league you can imagine I am walking on a cloud, my wife doesn't understand why I'm so proud of myself. You are the GURU GENUIS!!!!! - Rich P. (2/9)

response from Guru:
Rich's teams are currently rqnked #1 worldwide in both the CNN/SI Smallworld game, and also the Full Court game. Very impressive!

Just another satisfied customer. . . . - Guru

Guru:
You said that it is time to defend your Smallworld Hoops Title. I didn't start visiting you site until baseball season, and I was wondering if you were the overall champ in last year's Hoops game? - John F. (2/8)

response from Guru:
Yep. But now that I've taught everyone so much, the competition is much tougher! - Guru

Guru:
You're right, as usual. The first price update should be interesting, especially if Small World doesn't have a leader board and if people get frustrated with server slowness and they don't make any trades.

I've prepared myself for Wednesday's price update "not to be shocked if I'm shocked". I have visions of the forwards I'm holding being traded away for Chris Webber because of the game he had last night (and it would take three of mine to buy him, but they got 89 points yesterday). I figure I'll take my chances like most other Gurupies, and use player performance AND the schedule in lining up my trades. They should go up in value, but if they don't, I refer to my previous statement. I'm don't think I'm going to gamble or waste a trade on a possible, even probable price increase of a player I won't get any performance out of for a while. - Steve H. (2/8)

response from Guru:
Every season is a new adventure! What fun would it be if everything was predictable? - Guru

Guru:
While I am curious to see how the results of your latest poll turn out (I manage 5 teams myself), I was wondering how many people would put zero if given the choice. While we're all caught up in NBA fever, I wonder if we have a good number of people who regularly tune in just for general strategy tips or whatever. - Fred (2/8)

response from Guru:
I doubt it. I'm not THAT amusing! - Guru

Guru:
I have a question about the pricing structure for Full Court. As I understand it, the better the player performs, the more his price will increase. I haven't noticed any dramatic price increases for players, even for the undervalued ones. Do you think the prices will be adjusted compared to the performance of the other players, or do you think that it will be based on the price being tied directly to a performance output? For example, let's assume that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are producing the same amounts of points, will their prices be comparable? If so, then of course Pierce's price will have a great upside. Or will it be simply $1000 increase per point (or some similar system)?

Also, how does a player's price decrease?

I know that many people have mentioned this, but kudos again for that NBA schedule. I don't know how people without this can realistically compete, especially with the Full Court game. - Caleb S. (2/7)

response from Guru:
We'll all have to wait and see. I think if two players produce the same average, their prices will ultimately converge, but they won't necessarily equal each other right away. Prior Echelon games have tended to use a formula which grades a players price towards its theoretical target.

As the season progresses, we'll need to do some reverse engineering to see whether I can figure out what the price formula is.- Guru

Guru:
Do you have any knowledge of whether the first price adjustment will reflect initial buying rates or only subsequent trading? In the past, it appears that only subsequent trading has mattered. As a result, some players who were initially overpriced remained overpriced and thus "out of play" for the entire season while initially underpriced and heavily subscribed players had limited upward potential. Conversely, however, pricing based on initial subscription might lead to bottoming out of price of initially injured players (which did not happen - e.g., for Stockton last year). It would seem optimal for the pricing structure to reflect, to some extent, the total number of owners as that would ensure that undersubscribed players drop in price until they become more interesting and would thus maximize the number of players who were worth considering. In any case, knowing whether initial ownership will effect prices could have profound strategy implications, particularly at the time of the first price change. What do you think? - Jay S. (2/5)

response from Guru:
In the absence of any notices, I'm assuming that this year's pricing will be similar to past SW games, which means that initial drafting has no price impact, but only subsequent trading does. While I have advocated some sort of initial draft percentage adjustment in the past, I am less convinced that it would work well in this game - at least for expensive players. On a relative value basis, Tim Duncan may be appropriately priced. But hardly anyone is going to draft him, because it would chew up too much salary cap. But when teams get richer, Duncan will get some action. On the other hand, if a player is relatively overpriced, he won't get bought even after teams have more capital available. But there is no way to know today whether inactive player trading is due to overpricing or just the cap limitation. So putting in some sort of downward drift for underdrafted players doesn't really fix anything.

The area where I would like to see a change is in heavily drafted players. Some guys are probably way underpriced, and they'll be heavily drafted. It seems unfair that this will limit their upward price mobility. Again, SW has not said they will factor this in, so I make no assumptions. But I suspect there are a handful of players who will be on a high proportion of initial rosters. We'll just have to watch and see what happens to their prices. - Guru

Guru:
In regards to the article on when to trade with SWSports weekly price changes, I have found in SWS Hockey that it is better to save your trades until Tuesday night at the beginning of the season in order to buy the players that you think will have the most dramatic price increase. However, as the season progresses, and your roster value dramatically increases, I would suggest trading throughout the week based upon games played. I think that this would even be more beneficial in basketball than hockey because you will not need to worry about a potential bad game costing you negative points.

For example, if you pick up Hasek the day of a game, and he gives up 5 goals, then your trade will end up hurting your team rather than helping it. In basketball, if you pick up Ray Allen right before a good stretch of games for the Bucks, you will not need to worry about a bad game costing you points. Even a bad game will be better than no games at all. - Dave K. (2/5)

response from Guru:
As most of you know, I'm not playing hockey. But my understanding is that in this year's hockey game, by now most of the better teams have more money than they can spend. Many of you will recognize this situation as similar to the football game.

That is not likely to happen in SW Hoops, given the lofty draft prices. So, I'd suspect a gains-trading mentality will make sense through most of the season. But for the most part, if you can identify a likely price gainer on Tuesday night, you can probably pick him out on Monday as well. So keeping one eye on the schedule at all times would seem to be worthwhile.- Guru

Guru:
I have a question about the SW Hoops repricing, are they only repricing on Wednesdays this year??? Last year there was repricing M-F. If so how does that affect trading strategy??? I would guess trade Tuesday and pick up any droppers on Wednesday. In addition I would plan my game frequency from Wednesday to Tuesday.

I think this takes away from the game. I thought repricing everyday made it worthwhile to scan the price charts daily. Now it looks like I'll be spending an hour every Tuesday night. Any idea why Small World made this change? - Jason L. (2/3)

response from Guru:
What rock have you been sleeping under? You must be a one sport player?

Smallworld changed from daily to weekly repricing starting with last spring's baseball game, and continued the change for football & hockey. Basketball is the last in the cycle. All of those games used to be repriced M-F. Now they are all on a weekly cycle.

I think most people trade on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but not all. It was clear in football that a lot of people traded after the Wednesday repricing. But I do think the "smart money" traded in advance of the repricing. That clearly seemed to be the story in baseball.

In Hoops, you have the added consideration of the schedule. (Hockey has similar considerations - so maybe some SW hockey managers would like to share their observations.) So it is doubtful that strictly trading on Tuesdays is optimal. I think you need to be looking ahead to the Wednesday change, but trade early if you can pick up an extra game or two in the process.

Why the change? I think it was to avoid the tendency for players to have a price spike on the basis of one hot game. This also helps those fantasy managers who can't afford to be checking on price changes every single day. And hopefully, it helps to add better balance between the trading and sports aspects of the game.

Get used to it. - Guru

Guru:
I have found USA Today to be fairly up-to-date with injury reports and roster status. - Glenn R. (2/3)

response from Guru:
Thanks. - Guru

Guru:
I don't know how non-RotoGuru.com players are going to survive with the new salary cap and wild schedule. The Sched-O-Matic, 97-98 stats tables and the Assimilator have been invaluable. There are virtually no Fantasy Basketball magazines out this year. I haven't located a single one that is current. Most of the sports sites haven't been up-to-date. ESPN, CNN, Sporting News, and even NBA.com were out of date as of last week. This week things have settled down, but it's been tough locating quality information. RotoNews has been the most up-to-date source of player comings and goings. I suspect that this may be the most impressive SW season yet, for Gurupies. - Gareth (2/3)

response from Guru:
I hope so. Thanks for the compliments. Let's go, Gurupies. Worldwide fantasy sports dominance is in our grasp! Resistance is futile! - Guru

Guru:
I want to voice my opinion about the rookie inflation. I'm going to name names even though I hate when people do that in their feedback on other sites.

I have to say that gambling on rookies is just too risky this year. Buying a rookie used to be a fun risk and could prove very profitable. Now the risk is still there, but you don't have the price gain possibilities (except in rare cases). I have to mention Pat Garrity as one of the exceptions because I've watched him play for the last 3 years at ND, but I would never buy him now. If he was a million, maybe, but not when he costs more than a number of proven veterans. It just doesn't make sense.

In baseball, buying Paul Konerko was fun cause I got to follow a new player. I thought maybe I'd have a superstar for 100,000! Now, you have to pay superstar money for a totally unproven talent. Is this because NBA rookies can make more of an impact than baseball rookies? Probably, but I think it's more likely that Smallworld just wanted to make some changes and overdid it. $8,000,000 for Bibby might be a little more reasonable, but oh well. You've probably heard all this a few hundred times already. - Wes W. (2/1)

response from Guru:
We need to play the hand we're dealt. - Guru

Guru:
Is there a good site out there that has a listing of NBA injuries? I'm finding that since there is a such a shortened pre-season, many guys are going down. Keeping track of injuries is going to be a key factor in SW success this season. Any suggestions? Maybe you could put a link from your page to a good injury tracker page. - Craig H. (2/1)

response from Guru:
I haven't found a good consolidated list of injury info. I usually use ESPN's injury listing, but it's currently empty. RotoNews has been keeping pretty good track of player injuries during the preseason, but you essentially have to look player-by-player to find current information. Any Gurupies have other sources to suggest? - Guru

Click here for prior feedback letters, by month:

1999: January

December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March . . . . .

RotoGuru is produced by Dave Hall (a.k.a. the Guru), an avid fantasy sports player. He is neither employed by nor compensated by any of the fantasy sports games discussed within this site, and all opinions expressed are solely his own. Questions or comments are welcome, and should be emailed to Guru<davehall@home.com>.