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Guru:
Here's something else to consider when you consider "favorite teams," rushers and passers (the subject of your most recent column).

Good teams-Denver, Minnesota, San Francisco, and the like, particularly those that score a lot of points-are more likely to jump out in front of their opponents early in the game. The deficit causes the opponent to abandon a balanced game plan and throw on just about every down. Conversely, teams that are far ahead revert to the run to kill the clock, perhaps increasing running scores and decreasing quarterback scores.

Case in point: the Arizona Cardinals the past two weeks. Against Dallas, they fell behind 28-0. Jake Plummer started throwing on every down-even working the no huddle offense-and he had a 500+ SWP game. Then last week, the Cards led 31-6 over the 'Skins at halftime. They started playing more balanced, and Plummer threw less than 30 times (he still ran up 486 points, but primarily because he had three running TDs).

You may have to run some sort of correlation matrix using W-L records and other stats to check this out. Regardless, I think you do great work (you've helped me run to $106 million). Unfortunately, my company locked me out of your web site, so now I feel like I'm flying blind! - Harry B. (11/25)

response from Guru:
Da noive! You've gotta get a computer at home, Harry!

Your thinking sounds logical. But being on "good teams" hasn't hurt the point totals for Cunningham or Young, nor for their receivers. So I'm not quite sure what the predictive implications really are. - Guru

Guru:
Regarding the Rookie of the Year poll, barring the outcome of the last three weeks, I think a lot of Gurupies are misguided. Both Randy Moss and Fred Taylor are extremely talented individuals, but they've been placed in situations where they can excel to the utmost of their abilities, and as such have been exploited.

On the other hand, speaking as an avid NY Jets fan and Colts hater, I think Peyton Manning's drive with 2 minutes left two weeks ago showed who the Rookie of the Year is. That was pure ability and performance. Moss can catch Randall's heaves, and Fred can break his 80 yard runs, but only with the help of everybody else. They didn't lead the team 80 yards against one of the league's best defenses. Granted, Manning does have Marvin Harrison and Marshall Faulk on his side, but that's a helluva lot less than the aid that Moss and Taylor have towards getting their jobs done.

My two cents even though I hate Peyton Manning and sort of despise myself for even writing this letter. - Akiva S. (11/25)

response from Guru:
I must confess I don't know quite what to think of Moss. He's having a great year, but it'll take a few more before we can tell whether he's really as unique as he's looked thus far. Both he and Taylor have benefited from being on good teams, too, which means that there are other weapons to distract some of the defensive attention.

Manning, conversely, is on a team that doesn't get much attention - and Indy would probably get even less if Manning weren't there. He started the season slowly, with a lot of interceptions and not many TDs (11 ints vs. 3 TDs in the first 4 weeks). But since then, he's had 13 more TD passes against only 11 more interceptions, and he's throwing for about 225 yards per game. So he's certainly a contender. - Guru

Guru:
Your new chart almost convinced me to trade off what seems like a slumping A. Freeman when I saw that Philly has held WRs below average 7/10 times. I might drop him and pick him back up, because he looks like a possible big money loser.

Reasons (betting big game against Philly):

Review of Philly opponents shows that in 4 games against QB's W Moon, C Chandler, B Brister and T Aikman they have given up 10 TD passes. They've been real tough against J Plummer, R Gannon, T Green (1.5G), G Frerotte(.5G), R Leaf, C Batch and K Graham. (3 TD's in 7 games).
At home Freeman is over 200 points in 4 of 5 games. On the road, only 1 of 6.

Note: On Barry Sanders and Detroit on Thanksgiving. Last year he rushed for 167 yards and 2 TD's against Chicago. (Did not give any passing stats, newspaper clip). Pittsburgh might be a little tougher. The Pontiac Silverdome's a rocking place on Thanksgiving. Been there. Also Detroit over the last 4 years is averaging 39 PPG on Thanksgiving (nfl.com - Lions page). - Steve H. (11/25)

response from Guru:
I seemed to me like Barry is always getting a lot of yards on Thanksgiving, and an average of 39 ppg would seem to confirm that, at least circumstantially. - Guru

Guru:
Miami [instead of Atlanta] cost me over 700 spots and 420 points in the w.w. rankings - argggghhhh! I did have Atlanta on my other team and they moved into second in my local division.

I also like the average team defense and total team offense columns. How about a column on the best division - i.e., the highest average ranking for all ten teams in the division?

This week you noted that few serious players would have had Trent Green. Last week I figured that Green would be a good pickup with [trouble maker-suspension plagued] Michael Westbrook back on the team. I also noted that they [the Redskins] would be so far behind that they would need to pass the whole game. Too bad I wasn't brave enough to do something different in an effort to move up in the overall rankings [instead I used Favre and Young]. - John C. (11/25)

response from Guru:
If only. . . . . No guts, no glory!

Maybe I'll do some sort of division ranking. Several Gurupies have suggested it, and although I wasn't sure it would have much appeal, it should be easy enough to do. I'd probably just look at the average (or total) points of the top 5 teams in a division, though. Too many division have teams that drop out, or never even get started, so that including all ten teams would penalize some otherwise very competitive divisions.

To this end, I can easily find divisions which start with Guru or RotoGuru, but I know there are other Gurupie divisions that I should include. If you're in one of these other ones, and want it to be included, just email the division name to me (and whether it's from the SW or CNN/SI game site), and I'll try to work up some rankings next week. - Guru

Guru:
Nice analysis of opposing teams vs. the average output of certain positions. One point I'd like to make: The reason why teams such as Philadelphia and St. Louis are not very forgiving for opposing wide receivers is that because once a better team is beating either the Eagles or Rams into submission (as they have been beaten many, many times this year already), the opposition does not feel the need to pass the ball anymore. Instead their opponent will just run the rest of the game (i.e. Green Bay killing the Giants 37-3 in week 11, why throw to Freeman?). I think the one that will profit most from the weak teams such as the Eagles and Rams will be the running backs (and maybe even the backup running backs), since they will run most of the time to end the onslaught. - Rock (11/24)

response from Guru:
Sounds reasonable to me. - Guru

Guru:
Another week and more Defensive Stats.

Denver is still scoring the most points in the league (370), with Minnesota (348) and San Fran (323) behind them. Miami allows the fewest points (158) followed by Dallas (171) and the JETS (178).

Green Bay's opponents have a combined record of only 0.327, then San Fran has the next easiest schedule (0.345) and then Arizona (0.364). Arizona's remaining opponents have scored the fewest points (171), with Green Bay's competition a close second (177), then Tampa's (194).

So it looks like Arizona and Green Bay are the best bets for long term Defenses. But of course this is only ON PAPER. We all saw what 'Zona's D did on Sunday. They are ranked 17th for a reason, giving up 418 SWP/G Green Bay (13th, -381 SWP/G) also didn't show a stellar performance this past week. San Fran looks like the best bet if you want to keep a defense for more than a week.. but I think they are too pricey. This past week I sold Oakland for KC (forgetting Derrick Thomas was suspended, D'oh!) so I obviously paid for it. This week I'm going back to the good old Raiders.. although if I could afford it I would like Denver.

More info on my page > http://copland.udel.edu/~dloeb/teams.html. Don't forget the early Turkey Day Freeze Period. Not much time to think it over after price changes. Best of luck. - Doug L. (11/24)

response from Guru:
I never realized there was an apostrophe in D'oh! - Guru

Guru:
I've been playing Smallworld football the entire season, and I've been competitive for every week except for the first couple when I was trying to figure out the strategies of the league. Now, I've got tons of money and a lot of franchise players who do well, but I can't crack into the top 2000 because of the tight competition. Do you have any recommendations or strategies for someone in my position to move up? Thanks for your time, and for the use of your page. - Jon S. (11/23)

response from Guru:
My best advice is just to hang in there. If nothing else, you're winning a war of attrition. Keep at it week after week, and I'm sure your ranking will improve. - Guru

Guru:
I had a hard time picking defenses this past week. After selling Oakland before the price decrease, I narrowed the choices down to San Diego at home against a Chiefs team that seemed to be self-destructing before our eyes and the NY Giants at home against a Philadelphia team that can't score. A flip of the coin put San Diego on one of my teams and the Giants on the other. I had the same difficulty with wide receivers I narrowed the choices for my 3rd receiver down to Randy Moss or Chris Carter, figuring the Vikings would have a big day against the Packers. Once again a flip of the coin put Randy Moss on one team and Chris Carter on the other. Alas, Randy Moss Got paired up with the Chargers and Chris Carter got paired up with the NY Giants.

My goal for the rest of the year is to once, at least once, get a combination that puts me over the 2,000 point total for the week. I would have had it if I paired Randy Moss with the NY Giants, but I didn't. Maybe next week. - Rich C. (11/23)

response from Guru:
Believe me, I feel your pain! That's one of the downsides of having two teams, I guess. - Guru

Guru:
Hey, Guru, don't dismiss those of us who are fighting for something other than the number one slot. What I mean by this is that some of us are fighting for divisional titles, aren't up into the $100M+ value range, but are having just as much fun. Players in the lesser value ranges might very well have had Plummer, Westbrook and even Trent Green. I was very happy to have Plummer and Westbrook on both my teams. Unfortunately I also had San Diego.... - Alan S. (11/23)

response from Guru:
Well done! All except for San Diego, of course. - Guru

Guru:
This is how the end of my story goes. I told you how I had bought K.C.'s defense last week before the Monday night game and regretted. Now, I really regret it. They gave up 38 points to the Chargers. The stinkin' Chargers! And in case you forgot another thing, the team I was going to pick up - the Giants - blanked the Eagles. Ouch! This just might have put all hopes of finishing in the top fifty to rest. Now I have to "unconform" my roster.

Here are some of my brilliant moves to be different to pick up a lot of ground:

I sold Barry Sanders in favor of Skip Hicks (You can remember how disgusted I am with Barry not getting the ball in goal line situations).
I sold Kordell Stewart for Trent Green.
I sold Jerry Rice and picked Michael Westbrook. I believe he will be the best receiver in the league if he ever gets his head on straight. You saw what a great player he is today against the Cards.
I also sold K.C. in favor of Green Bay due to their match-up next week against Philly.

Of course, most of you are thinking "Is this guy nuts?" Well maybe, but if these trades pan out, I will be looking like a true genius.

Tune in next week as the Redskins continue to play for the number one draft pick (actually #2 because the Browns have the #1) and manage to find a way to lose yet another game. Prediction: Oakland will be losing by 20 with a minute to go and all the Redskins will be struck dead by lightning. (Oh well, at least I don't have to watch another disappointing Wizards season. And what's going on with the Crapitals. Washington teams seem to be taking a turn for the worst. At least we try hard, sort of.) - Omar (11/22)

response from Guru:
"Is this guy nuts?" - Guru

Guru:
I bought the K.C. defense on Sunday afternoon (after the freeze period) because of their game against San Diego next week. I would have bought Philly's opponent, the Giants, but they cost too much. Anyway, KC's poor defensive showing against Denver disheartened me. You can't expect much for a defense against Denver but this was ridiculous. I don't even like the Chiefs and I was upset at how poorly they were playing. I expected a decent game. But what was far more disheartening was the fact that probably the Chiefs best (or close to best) defensive player, Derrick Thomas, got suspended. This has me wishing I had shelled out the extra 3 million to buy the Giants.

One other question. Why don't the Lions ever play Barry Sanders in goal line situations? He's only the best running back in history. Is it to prevent injury or what? Tommy Vardell gets 2 touchdowns and a good amount of SWP while Barry has to make incredible runs and get a ton of yards just to get 16 fewer SWP points. I don't get it. In think SW should change their scoring system. - Omar H. (11/20)

response from Guru:
The moral of your first paragraph is "Don't trade so early!" Unless you're going to be incommunicado for the next week, you ought to wait until at least the weekend games are completed. I usually do my trades on Tuesday, which gives me the full benefit of the prior weekend's results, while still protecting somewhat against a SW server shutdown. And I know that many managers prefer to wait until Sunday morning to finalize their rosters.

As to the second question, I suspect the answer is "because it's working!" And I don't see why SW should change scoring because of this. You just have to factor it into your trading decisions. - Guru

Guru:
Your poll question this week begs the question of you: How much time do you spend on fantasy sports each week? Certainly maintaining the site has some base number of hours per week, but what besides that are you putting in each week? - Fred (11/19)

response from Guru:
It's hard for me to figure out where web site preparation ends and personal team management begins. However, my best guess is that I only spend an hour or so per week on my own teams. I selected "1-2 hours" on the poll. But much of the reason I spend so little time is that I make extensive use of my own web site. Given than almost 50% of poll respondents spend more than that, I guess my relative lack of success in this game isn't too surprising.

How much time to I devote to the web site? Football is clearly consuming less time than either basketball or baseball, but that's mostly due to the weekly nature of the schedule. I'd guess that web site production takes about 10 hours per week for football. (The other sports probably took more than twice that amount.) - Guru

Guru:
Your 11/17 quote (editorial) was the best this year. Schottenheimer's coaching authority is the equivalent to Clinton's moral authority. - Mike V. (11/19)

response from Guru:
That depends on what the definition of the word "best" is. - Guru

Guru:
I know this isn't exactly FF-related, but what K.C. did on Monday night really made my blood boil. I've been a fan of Marty S. since the Browns days, but I've just lost all respect for him after that debacle. Sure, he apologized, but when he was put to the test on the field, he wouldn't pull Derrick Thomas off the field until there was a running situation. And with D.T. getting a one-game suspension while Wayne Simmons gets the axe, how can we have much respect for anyone in the organization? - Beezer (11/18)

response from Guru:
I must confess that I turned off the game before the 4th quarter, so I missed the brouhaha. From the postgame reactions, though, it must have been quite a spectacle. - Guru

Guru:
I am an avid RotoGuru user and I am currently working on a project in my college writing class. I'd like to get general comments from people who were affected by the cold war or Vietnam or Communistic Wars in general. I need personal information on what it was like during Nuclear Missile scares and other instances during the period of time between 1945 and 1988.

I don't really need to ask questions personally to people just as long as I can get some general feedback on personal experiences, memories and fears. If several Gurupies could reply and give me their thoughts, I'd really appreciate it. They can e-mail me at digitalx@mailexcite.com. I'd also like their name and location. Thanks. - Matt G. (11/17)

response from Guru:
It's certainly not related to sports, but it's a slow week, so why not? I gave Matt some of my brief recollections already. I know there are some others out there who are old enough to remember those days. If you could drop Matt an email, I know he'd appreciate it. - Guru

Guru:
Hey! Its Doug again... the Delaware kid that did the Defense stats.

Here are just a couple notes from the stats for ya...



Category                      Best                Worst
Points                        Denver (330)        Philly (92)
Fewest Points Allowed         Miami (132)         Wash. (273)
Easiest Record Ahead          San Fran (.333)     Miami (.683)
                              Arizona (.333)
Upcoming Opp'ts Pts           Arizona (152)       Miami (252)
Upcoming Opp'ts Pts Allowed   Carolina (235)      KC (160)

So what's it all mean? Basically the top two categories don't tell us anything new. Denver is a scoring juggernaut, Miami's new 'No Name D' is hard to score on. Philly can't score, and Washington's defense has more holes than swiss cheese.

Now the other info... San Fran and Arizona have the easiest records ahead when it comes to wins vs. losses, and Arizona has the easiest opponents to defend. Miami has the toughest schedule ahead because their opponents have the best average record AND score the most points (yeesh!). Carolina technically have the easiest upcoming opponents to score on (except they suck), and KC has the stingiest defense to face when it comes to points.

Hopes this helps some people... All I know is that I have to drop Oakland by Sunday! I've got the full breakdown at my site. Here's the URL again... http://copland.udel.edu/~dloeb/football/teams.html. - Doug L. (11/17)

response from Guru:
It's all as clear as mud. Actually, Miami looks like a good pick vs. struggling New England, but I figure the Pats are due to break out one of these weeks, and given my track record....

Also, I'd say you've got to drop Oakland before Wednesday. In fact, given the possibility of an early trade cutoff (remember last week?), you probably ought to go drop them now, whether you pick up another defense or not. - Guru

Guru:
Regarding staying up-to-the-minute on injury status: I was watching ESPN on Sunday morning and they didn't go to the stadium and announce Young was not playing until 11:30 EST. I quickly went to Smallworld and looked up the freeze period to realize that I had just missed it [10:00 CST which is 11:00 EST]. Oh well.

I use CNN/SI for injury reports, but it is tough to stay on top of all the injuries and have a life. - John C. (11/13)

response from Guru:
You want fantasy football success AND a life, eh? Boy, you want it all! - Guru

Guru:
You got me all excited when I read you have some interesting ideas for the NCAA hoop tourney. Can't wait for that again!

And I agree with your comments on roster values completely. I haven't felt cash constrained at all on either of the two teams I'm involved with for many weeks. The SWF experience has been totally different in that respect than I found baseball to be. - Steve B. (11/13)

response from Guru:
I'm currently lugging more than $10 million in cash on each of my teams. I can't ever remember that happening in prior games. - Guru

Guru:
My SWF teams are both ranked in the top 500. Now with everyone contemplating their own theories on wide receiver strategies I've come up w/ something for my situation. In the coming weeks, I am gonna stick w/ Favre and Stewart at QB and also Davis and Freeman at their respective positions, but aside from that my teams are open to vs. defense, matchups, weather, etc. However as far as the WR position goes here are my two cents...W/ Freeman, Rice, Carter, J. Smith, and E. McCaffery among others being the costliest receiver on their teams it is almost a certainty that the majority of owners own them rather than their counterparts such as Brooks, Owens or Stokes, Moss or Reed, McCardell, or R. Smith (the exceptions being someone like a Rob Moore for the Cardinals or a Thigpen for the Oilers). Therefore, w/ alot of teams needing to make up alot of significant ground I suggest picking your spots and each week maybe choosing one of these "secondary" receivers to possibly gain a point advantage here and there for the week. Last weekend for the "Jungle Clones" I went w/ a $59m roster...having well over $30 in reserve (Much of this was due to my drop of Terrell Davis, a move which actually helped me pick up sig. pts b/c I picked up E. George in the process), and that roster almost outpointed my other roster. I know diversity is a common answer as we enter the stretch run in the next couple of weeks, however I suggest the "secondary" receiver strategy b/c they serve as direct inverses (yes this can be argued, however by simple theory it can be assumed) to the players most of the top teams will be sporting for that week. As I see it this is the fastest way to gain ground on the leaders w/out actually risking it all and having the season blowup in your face b/c of one dismal performance.

Also, I wanted to add how much I love your sight and also one final public service announcement... PLEASE START THE STINKIN NBA SEASON ALREADY... all this crap about no one will miss it is a crock. There is a reason why the NBA is "fantastic" and without it I know the winter in Houston will be difficult to stand! - Ali A. (11/13)

response from Guru:
Interesting perspective on receivers. It will be tough to pick your spots correctly week after week, but hey - no guts, no glory! - Guru

Guru:
Is there any way to get updated information like up to the minute info on QB's for this week I am having so much trouble. Favre's too damned Expensive and is very vulnerable, Young might not play, Brunell might not play, Stewart is iffy in the points category, and I really don't know if picking up Neil O'Donnell and Chris Chandler is a good idea. Any way you could help you let me know where to get some up to the minute info? - Matt G. (11/12)

response from Guru:
As I've said time and time again, I usually rely on RotoNews for my information. If you had been checking there last week, you'd have seen on Friday that Young was questionable. However, as best I can tell, you pretty much had to be watching ESPN Sunday morning to get the ultimate word. And for any game day decision, I suspect TV or radio may be the best last minute source. - Guru

Guru:
Last night I was thinking about what to do with my Defense. I've got Oakland and I trust them against Seattle, but next week they've got Denver, so I started scouting other defenses early. I started making a small database of Defensive stats (like PF, PA, upcoming opponents' record, upcoming opponents PF, and upcoming opponents PA), that I just couldn't find all in one place. I just thought I'd share with you and the other gurupies. Hope someone gets some use out of it. Here's the URL:

http://copland.udel.edu/~dloeb/football/teams.html
Sorry for the long URL... it's posted on my school's server. It's nothing special (no bells or whistles) but it gets the job done. - Doug L. (11/12)

response from Guru:
Thanks, Doug. I'm sure your page will get a workout between now and next Wednesday.

I was about to close this response by asking you about the significance of the "blue hen" mascot. But first, I checked the U. of Delaware website, and lo and behold, there was the answer - in fact, much more than I wanted to know. So, for those of you with too much time on your hands... - Guru

Guru:
I have a major Steve Young horror story to tell.

I dropped Young prior to last Wednesday's repricing, and didn't pick anybody else up. I just wanted to avoid his decline, and didn't see any clear-cut big gainers. Before I picked him back up, the injury appeared. I thought I was going to be set, with everybody else having him, and was prepared to pick somebody else up. Then, on Saturday, word had it that Young would probably play, and visions of 400-SWP games went dancing through my head. So I picked him up then, because my parents were in town for the weekend and I wouldn't be on campus Sunday morning. In the hotel room at around 9:00 Sunday, ESPN said Young wouldn't be playing. I had one trade left, but I couldn't get my parents to take me back to my room to make the trade. (Parents!...) So I suffered with Young and Favre at QB. Well, I was planning on getting rid of Young Tuesday, but (I don't know if you heard) it got a little breezy in Chicago on Tuesday, and, lo and behold, the power went out. And it didn't come back on. That is, until Wednesday morning. I still had time to dump him, luckily. But no! Small World was down. And so I ate Young. And 3 million dollars. ERRRRRRR...Now I'm ranked around 2300 and my team is worth a paltry $85 mil. No hope of moving up, I guess. I would say "there's always basketball", but... - Ryan P (11/12)

response from Guru:
Assuming Young does play this weekend, you might be OK. For the first time in awhile, Young doesn't appear on many rosters. (Of course, I realize that could change before Sunday.) So there's always the chance that this could still work out OK.

And if not, there's always basketball. Oops!.... - Guru

Guru:
What a frustrating game SWS Football is turning out to be. I usually do my trading early, prior to the Wednesday price increase and then forget about my teams until I watch a bit of football on Sundays. However, I thought I was on top of things this Saturday when I read about Steve Young's injury. Since I've got him on my team and my daughter also has him on her team we went searching for a replacement. I picked up Troy Aikman giving me Cunningham and Aikman. She picked up Elway giving her Elway and Favre.

Well you know what happened on Sunday. My two quarterbacks scored a combined 188 pts and Troy Aikman got my daughter a grand total of 9 pts. Maybe Favre can get his act together tonight and help out her team. Were there any good quarterback combos this past Sunday.? Anyway, we are praying that Favre and Freeman salvage our poor weekend showing. The only thing that went right were our running backs. We both have the trio of Terrell Davis, Barry Sanders and Fred Taylor which scored most all of our points. - Rich C. (11/9)

response from Guru:
Following up on my tallying of the top 100 rosters for last weekend's games, I evaluated the points scored for each of these 100 teams at the QB position. Only one team's QBs produced more than 400 SWP - "parrotheads1" at the CNN/SI site, whose combo of McNair and Brunell netted 498 SWP. Ten of these teams scored between 300-400 SWP, including 8 teams with the 346 SWP tandem of Brunell and Favre. And 36 of the 100 teams realized less than 100 SWP from both QBs combined, including 28 teams who had the -2 SWP dynamic duo of Young and Cunningham. - Guru

Guru:
The most exciting game of the year had the Redskins (Deadskins) on the butt end of it. I haven't cried in a long time but the game brought a single tear to my eye. I can't believe we blew another one. It seems to me that God himself is betting against the Redskins and just won't let them win.

Enough of my whining. I did pick up Skip Hicks write before the game expecting him to be the steal of the week. He was not. I had a decent game picking up about 65 yards and a TD but nothing extraordinary. I am going to purify my team of all Redskins now who have caused me to drop in the standings. Although I am first in my division and around 1,700 in the entire league, I do not doubt I could have been higher if I had not been cursed with liking the Redskins. I shouldn't say this because they have been a great team for a long time but are clearly on a path straight to the bottom. Oh well, we do have our pick in the draft along with Carolina's pick and there's always next season. - Omar H. (Wash DC) (11/8)

response from Guru:
Time to get Riggins, Theisman, and Art Monk to suit up again? Can't be much worse than the status quo. - Guru

Guru:
I have a feeling that there may be a pretty big shake up this coming week on the leaderboard with Cunningham, Young, Brunell and Elway all not playing complete (if any of their) games today. I was checking out some of the top managers, and was amazed how some of them had pairings for quarterbacks such as Flutie-McNair. I'm wondering who their sources are...

Also, monetarily, I think that Flutie may have another week of increases regardless of how he performs today and the group of four injured may all go down.

What do you know about their status for next week - as in, are they good to hold onto? I got stuck with Brunell and Elway this week and I can empathize with the many managers that are going to suffer like I will this week with these injuries. - Craig (11/8)

response from Guru:
It will clearly be a wild pricing week for QB's.

Young and Cunningham will drop bigtime. Elway, although not as widely owned, probably will drop as well. That means a lot of other guys will be bought.

Brunell is a tougher call, since he supposedly will be able to play next week, and if you didn't follow the game recap closely, you might not even realize he sat out the second half. So it is possible that Brunell buys could offset Brunell sells. After all, he is ranked 2nd among QB's in total points (though Favre would pass him with an average game tonight).

Flutie didn't help himself at all yesterday, and given the number of people who had already bought him the past two weeks, I think he's a tough call. I wouldn't count on an increase for him - but it is possible.

McNair looks like the big winner. Favre could also gain big, if he plays well tonight. Testaverde will probably also do well. Chandler could also do OK, especially since he faces the porous 49ers pass defense next week.

Interesting times, eh? - Guru

Guru:
You did not include my Cardinals in today's new poll. With their weak schedule and weak division all they have to do is finish ahead of Dallas to reach the playoffs. I know they have not been there in about 50 years, but this might be the year the ball bounces their way. Once Jake gets it together, the offense will start to click. Their defense is already one the toughest in the league. The "Cactus Curtain" is forcing more turnovers than anyone else in the league. If they get over .500 this Sunday maybe we can actually get more Cardinal fans in the stadium than fans for the opposing team. Wishful thinking anyway!

SW Football is turning out to much more complex than the other sports. Because I am a huge basketball fan, I could go with players that were performing the best without considering who they were playing. In football I have to consider many variables. What kind of defense are they playing this week, turf or grass, weather, if their team will try to pass or run. I guess this is a sport where the very serious fantasy league players have a huge advantage. - Wolffpack (11/7)

response from Guru:
There's definitely a combination of skill and luck required - and I don't know which is more important. Certainly, understanding the implications of the factors you mention - home/away, turf/grass, indoor/outdoor, defense/offense strengths - can play a big role. But if the game could be analyzed successfully this way, then what would be the point of playing the games? There are a lot of "unpredictables" as well, including weather, injuries, bad bounces, and just normal human unpredictability - that can render much of the pregame analysis meaningless.

Your letter did get me to thinking about what a good first half would have required. I think the keys to success this season have been as follows (not necessarily in this order):

Picking up Steve Young early on - preferably in the initial draft.
Picking up Randall Cunningham immediately following Brad Johnson's injury.
Picking up Terrell Davis in the draft, and holding on.
Drafting Randy Moss, but then dumping him just before his bye. (And maybe picking him up again afterward for the price spike, but not keeping him for the subsequent game).
Starting the year with the KC defense, and then switching to Oakland after week 3 (when they cost $770,000) and sticking with them since then.

This is just my off-the-cuff subjective short list, but I'll bet if you got these moves right, you'd be very competitive as long as the rest of your moves weren't terribly unlucky (or certifiably stupid).

My biggest mistakes have probably been missing Cunningham until too late, and dropping Oakland too early. My timing on Steve Young and Terrell Davis were a little tardy, but probably not too bad.

Anyone have other critical roster moves to suggest? Or do you take issue with some of my thoughts? - Guru

Guru:
Been looking at team defenses for two reasons. Has an impact on the offensive players I pick, and of course my defense. With Denver, Minnesota and San Francisco's offenses above and beyond the rest of the league (all scoring above 630), I thought they might be making some defenses look easier than they really were when selecting offensive players. So I took them out of team defensive stats to see what it looked like. Then, to be fair I took out the three offenses at the other end of the spectrum (Philadephia, Arizona and San Diego all scoring under 260). I thought this might give a more realistic (or at least a different) view of team defenses. So, the chart below lists (SWP DEF ranking, SWP AVG, and Points Allowed AVG) stats for all games (on the left) and how teams faired against other than those 6 teams (on the right).

                             Games excl Den, Min, 
 --All Games--                 SF, Phi, Ari, SD
Rank  SWP   PA     TEAM       Rank   SWP   PA
 3   -323   14  DALLAS          1   -283   13
 1   -288   18  OAKLAND         2   -292   17
 2   -293   14  MIAMI           3   -293   14
 10  -365   17  NY JETS         4   -295   15
 11  -369   18  TAMPA BAY       5   -313   15
 12  -388   21  GREEN BAY       6   -322   18
 8   -361   17  NEW ENGLAND     7   -326   16
 4   -323   18  KANSAS CITY     8   -361   19
 9   -361   18  PITTSBURGH      9   -361   18
 17  -416   21  ATLANTA         10  -369   21
 18  -419   21  NEW ORLEANS     11  -370   20
 6   -341   17  SAN DIEGO       12  -371   18
 7   -349   21  ARIZONA         13  -375   24
 5   -335   16  SEATTLE         14  -380   19
 22  -444   21  JACKSONVILLE    15  -388   18
 13  -391   20  SAN FRANCISCO   16  -391   20
 14  -398   18  MINNESOTA       17  -398   18
 23  -446   26  ST LOUIS        18  -409   24
 20  -430   22  CHICAGO         19  -425   21
 15  -405   19  BUFFALO         20  -430   19
 21  -437   20  TENNESSEE       21  -435   21
 24  -451   22  BALTIMORE       22  -451   22
 19  -419   20  DENVER          23  -455   20
 25  -457   26  DETROIT         24  -468   26
 16  -407   22  NY GIANTS       25  -481   25
 29  -597   30  WASHINGTON      26  -503   25
 26  -489   25  PHILADELPHIA    27  -523   25
 27  -528   27  CAROLINA        28  -528   27
 28  -557   27  INDIANAPOLIS    29  -594   28
 30  -605   27  CINCINNATI      30  -603   27
     -413   21     AVERAGE          -406   20

The biggest surprise is probably the NY Jets. I'd have never considered changing an offensive player because they were playing the Jets. And it also shows me why I should have gotten rid of Seattle last week. - Steve H. (11/7)

response from Guru:
Good work once again, Steve.

The Jets gave up 852 in week one against San Fran. Garrison Hearst's overtime touchdown run cost them almost 160 SWP by itself. Since then, they've been pretty respectable, but it's hard to overcome the impact of a game that bad. - Guru

Guru:
This is a follow-up on my earlier letter. Once again, the unusual suspect comes through for the Vikings, showing that you can never tell who will pay off. My friend told me he was going to buy all three Vikings receivers so he is bound to get some productivity. Do you think that would be a good idea?

Also, here is some research on the three Minnesota receivers and the three San Francisco receivers. The chart shows the total of the receivers combined and who the top receiver points-wise was:

        Minn 3 combd.     SF 3 combd.
Week 1:  478; Moss       662; Stokes 
Week 2:  360; Carter     438; Owens 
Week 3:  254; Moss            bye
Week 4:  392; Carter     584; Rice
Week 5:  938; Moss       428; Stokes
Week 6:       bye        430; Owens
Week 7:  377; Carter     505; Stokes
Week 8:  348; Carter     570; Owens 
Week 9:  464; Reed       264; Rice

Total:  3611; Moss      3881; Rice

As I initially thought, San Francisco receivers are better and perform better on the field. If you are going to buy any three receivers, I say buy the three out of San Franscico. The price of the Minnesota receivers combined is $20,340,000 and San Francisco is $17,630,000. They are cheaper and better. Can you ask for anything more? - Omar H. (11/5)

response from Guru:
Throw out week 5, and Minnesota's trio don't even look very impressive as a group. The 49ers seem to be more consistent (though they sure sucked against Green Bay, didn't they?). But as a general strategy, I'm not real keen on three from the same team. While it may ensure a good week from at least one receiver, it also generally produces a weak outing by at least one. Meanwhile, a trio like Moulds, Galloway, and Martin costs about the same as the three SF receivers, and has outproduced them. - Guru

Guru:
Are SW repricings (all sports) zero-sum? - Mike V. (11/5)

response from Guru:
Sort of.

My observations lead me to believe there are several things that cause gains and losses not to offset exactly:

If a player's gain or loss would exceed the weekly cap (stated to be $3 mil in football), the excess G/L rolls over to the next week. Over time, though, this impact washes out.
A player's price can't go below $100,000. If sales would otherwise push a price through this floor, the excess loss is not offset. Again, if a player's price subsequently rises, this excess is carried forward and nets out. But some prices never recover.
Rounding. The sum of each week's price changes typically seems to be a small positive number. Since prices are rounded to multiples of $10,000, I suspect rounding tends to create a slight upward net effect.

In yesterday's repricing, the sum of all changes was $770,000. That's a little higher than usual, but I suspect Terry Glenn is the culprit. He dropped $610,000 to reach a price of $100,000, and I'll bet there were enough Glenn sales to push his price lower by another $500,000 or so. - Guru

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RotoGuru is produced by Dave Hall (a.k.a. the Guru), an avid fantasy sports player. He is neither employed by nor compensated by any of the fantasy sports games discussed within this site, and all opinions expressed are solely his own. Questions or comments are welcome, and should be emailed to Guru<davehall@home.com>.